How do teams respond to “a fresh start”?
The Cardinals begin a series in Houston tonight, the first games that the Astros will play in the wake of the firing of their manager and general manager. It’s the fourth major-league managing change this season (Baltimore fired Sam Perlozzo, Cincinnati fired Jerry Narron and Seattle’s Mike Hargrove resigned).
With Houston owner Drayton McLane saying the franchise "needed a fresh start," we wondered whether and how quickly teams under new management turned things around. This season’s changes are a small sample, to be sure, but they may be worth a look — teams’ winning percentages before and after a mid-season managerial change this year, along with their wins in the first series after the change:
| Manager | Team | Last day | First series | W%Before | W%After |
| Narron | CIN | 1-Jul | 2-of-3 (H) | .378 | .604 |
| Hargrove | SEA | 1-Jul | 1-of-3 (A) | .577 | .549 |
| Perlozzo | BAL | 18-Jun | 2-of-3 (A) | .420 | .483 |
Cincinnati’s managerial switch has brought about the most dramatic results, if indeed they are tied to the manager change. Before they fired America’s Most Popular Manager, Jerry Narron, the Reds were the worst team in baseball. Since then, they’ve been the best in the National League (and, consequently, are "only" 6.5 games back of first). With playoff odds of less than 0.1%, the Astros are pretty much finished for the season. So as far as the Cardinals are concerned, this mid-week series is the only real concern to them; we can’t draw any conclusions from the other teams who’ve gotten new blood this season, but it would appear that at least the teams don’t roll over. Besides, and any team with Roy Oswalt taking the ball in one of the games isn’t exactly going to be a cakewalk.
At any rate, the firings represent a curious "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately" approach in Houston. After all, the Astros under Garner were 277-252 — a .524 winning percentage. Comparatively, during Craig Biggio’s tenure with the club, the Astros’ record is only .519. And Purpura had only been at the GM post since 11/1/04, though he had been Assistant GM since 1998 — a period that includes three division titles and a pennant. The team has been to the playoffs in that period as many times as they haven’t. As bad as the Jason Jennings trade and Carlos Lee signing may have been, that seems like any awfully short leash.
As we noted earlier in the season, the tenure of Cardinal combo of Tony La Russa and Walt Jocketty is not only impressive in its own right, it’s also a symbol of pride for the organization, inasmuch as it represents stability, good decision-making and professionalism. A firing is never a mark of success (Oakland’s canning of Ken Macha last year perhaps notwithstanding) and is at the very least embarrassing and an acknowledgment of failure. Regardless of how the Cardinals finish this season, the specter of La Russa’s firing has never even entered the realm of possibility, which is no small thing.