A day after creating a season-low .21 runs, the Cardinals erupted for their sixth-most runs created and rallied for their fourth-most total bases this year. Games in which the Cardinals have created at least six runs:

Not only did the team score often, they scored early, creating an unfamiliar scenario for starting-pitcher Brad Thompson. With his team up 8-0 after the third inning, Thompson — as our esteemed colleague Brian Button pointed out — might’ve changed his game plan a bit, pitching like, as Mike Shannon likes to say, "here it is, big boy, see if you can hit it." So Thompson’s fielding-independent numbers reflect that context-dependent aggression: no walks but two home runs. We’d rather credit him for not walking anyone than for yielding the two long balls (though we still think that his HR rate bears watching).

So continues The Great Experiment of converting relievers to starters. It’s disappointing that some in the media have chosen to focus on the Cardinals’ early-season slump rather than the real (in our opinion) news worthy of attention: The Cardinals now have three-fifths of their starting rotation comprised of career relievers. To be sure, Thompson and tonight’s starter, Adam Wainwright — having started three of 99 games and seven of 70 games, respectively — are less extreme cases than Braden Looper, who had appeared in 572 games in his major-league career before starting eight games in 2007. For his part, Thompson doesn’t even have a minor-league pedigree as a starter: Only 25 of his 71 minor-league games were in a starting role, with 12 of those coming in 2004 at AA Tennessee. The fact remains that this is uncharted territory. By adding Thompson to the rotation, the Cardinals are no longer just tinkering with a sideshow experiment of converting Looper. Consider how far, in the span of a few months, we’ve come: Beginning as an off-season whim (that many of us figured was a posturing ruse) by Duncan, Looper has legitimized the idea with his better-than-imagined start (e.g., 3.22 FIP), and, Wainwright, despite a rocky start, appears to have settled on flat ground and now has a 4.20 FIP. And what might’ve been considered an untenable risk in Spring Training — trying to convert a third starting pitcher — now seems to be the most reasonable path to success.

Of course, we warn against irrational exuberance. Thompson’s 4.03 ERA and 2-0 record may look appealing, but dig a little deeper and you’ll see some cracks in the foundation that may need attention. Take, for instance, his abnormally high HR/G (2.14), which is driving up his FIP ERA to an unhealthy 6.41. Still, he’s sticking with his bread-and-butter approach, which is to use his sinker to induce groundballs (53.1% GB rate); he’s been especially effective in that regard in his two starts (10-2 and 13-4 GB-FB, respectively).

Perhaps if Wainwright keeps rounding back into form, Looper continues to defy the odds and Thompson sticks in the rotation, we’ll start hearing some buzz. We’re not planning on seeing the trio on the cover of Sports Illustrated anytime soon, but hopefully Cardinal fans can quietly appreciate the uncanny makeup of this new rotation and enjoy their accomplishments. Who knows, we might be watching the mainspring of the next wave of Moneyball.

This entry was posted by Pip on Tuesday, May 15th, 2007 at 2:45 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.