Come, thou long-expected ZIPS results. Dan “Numbers” Szymborski has published his projections for the Cardinals, so let’s check them out. Besides being the most exciting thing to open since Christmas morning, the ZiPS page instantly starts answering the burning offseason question: How will the 2007 Cardinals compare with the 2006 team? Today we’ll focus on offense.

Using David Pinto’s Baseball Musings Lineup Tool, we projected a 2007 batting order based on the team’s most common 2006 version, substituting only Adam Kennedy for Aaron Miles in the eighth spot (we used the team’s pitchers’ 2006 composite stats for the nine hole), along with our two preferred batting orders:

In the most likely scenario, the 2007 iteration figures to generate between 4.908 and 4.950 runs/game, down just a smidge from the 5.076-5.122 runs/game that the most common 2006 lineup retrospectively projected to (in reality, the Cardinals generated 4.85 runs per game in 2006). So this year’s starting eight figures to compare well with last year’s model. But how about relative to the NL Central rivals, many of whom have made several acquisitions this winter (most notably the Cubs and Astros). Using the ZiPS for the rest of the Central teams, according to their projected lineups, we generated runs-per-game expectations. Here’s how the Cardinals stack up for 2007 (click the links to see what projected lineups we used):

Model 1: 1998-2002 Model
Model 2: 1959-2004 Model

So despite having a right fielder who looks to have a paltry .315 OBP and merely adding a new eighth-place hitter, the Cardinals should have the most potent starting lineup in the NL Central. (This, of course, despite the $226 million that the Cubs and Astros spent between them on Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee.) And if the team were able to unload Encarnacion in the next month or so, we like the offensive upgrade that either John Rodriguez or Eli Marrero would provide. The chief competition would be from the Cubs, who stand to make up a lot of ground, if for no other reason than that Derrick Lee returns, and no thanks to low-OBP additions Soriano and DeRosa. Compared to their division foes, the Cardinals appear to have the right idea, if somewhat obvious to sabermetricians: A relatively high leadoff man (second-best OBP in the division), followed by sluggers who reach base often, rather than wasting outs in the #2 spot (see HOU, PIT, MIL, CHC). Of course, it doesn hurt to have a third-place hitter with an 1.100 OPS.

So the offense is in ship-shape. The pitching is another story. We’ll review their ZiPS later.

This entry was posted by Pip on Monday, January 8th, 2007 at 1:00 am and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.