Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Wainwright’s new release point is real, and it’s spectacular

A couple of weeks ago, Adam Wainwright noted that he needed to change the release point in his delivery. Prior to that, he wasn’t awful, but he certainly wasn’t the Wainwright that the team or fans had become accustomed to. He was striking out 7.19 per nine innings but languishing with a middling 4.35 ERA, a ho-hum 1.09 HR/9 and an utterly unacceptable 4.57 BB/9.

Since then, however, he has been a new man, or, rather, more like his old self: In his last three games, including Tuesday’s 8-1 victory over the Brewers, Wainwright has a hefty 8.75 K/9, a minuscule 0.76 ERA, a 1.90 BB/9 and a 0.38 HR/9.

So how did he do it? Was that release-point business just some mumbo-jumbo that the coaching staff had put into Wainwright’s head, or did he really make a change to his delivery, resulting in improved pitching? Thanks to the uber-cool pitch F/X tool at Brooks Baseball, we can see whether and just how much Wainwright has changed his delivery. The following graphic shows the release points in each of Wainwright’s starts this year — pay attention to the change that occurs between his May 10 and May 16 starts:

waino-release-point

During his first seven starts, Wainwright’s release point was inconsistent, higher (around the seven-foot mark) and more directly over his head (about a foot off-center). But beginning with his May 16 start — his first after acknowledging the change — his release point has consistently been down and to the side more — about six inches to a foot each way.

Perhaps interestingly, the release-point change isn’t resulting in much change to his curveball — the average horizontal break is 6.81 (was 7.18 prior to 5/16) and the vertical break is -9.44 (was -9.07). But check out his two-seam fastball (or what Gameday considers his two-seam fastball):

Date Average Speed Max Speed Average H-Break Average V-Break
6-Apr 90.53 93.5 -8.12 9.7
11-Apr 90.7 93.2 -8.43 9.15
16-Apr 90.13 93.3 -6.82 10
24-Apr 91.4 94 -8.28 8.46
29-Apr 90.83 93.5 -5.49 9.23
5-May 91.13 93.7 -7.85 8.33
10-May 90.36 92.8 -4.34 11.37
16-May 90.21 93.1 -9.64 7.82
21-May 91.61 93.8 -8.57 6.67
26-May 90.77 93.1 -8.54 8.15
Before 5/16 90.73 93.43 -7.05 9.46
After 5/16 90.86 93.33 -8.92 7.55

The two-seamer is moving more, sliding more, as it were: The average horizontal break runs in on righties (away from lefties) about two more inches, from -7.05 to -8.92, and the vertical change is is almost as much, going from 9.46 down to 7.55.

So the early returns indicate that Wainwright has indeed changed his release point, and for the better. It appears that it has particularly benefited his two-seam fastball. Kudos to both Wainwright and Dave Duncan. That’s more like the Adam Wainwright of old.

5 Responses to “Wainwright’s new release point is real, and it’s spectacular”

  1. CardinalJohn Says:

    I thought it was Carpenter that first noticed the different arm slot.

  2. Pip Says:

    Ah, okay, that sounds familiar. I was just going by the info in the article that I linked to at the outset of the post. Carp is kind of like a second pitching coach, eh?

  3. Hoish Says:

    Pip, PLEASE “say it ain’t so” and stop calling him “Waino!”

    I’ve been trying to curtail that nickname (which I have yet to hear that he actually endorses) for the sake of it sounding like a drain opener or a person with a drinking problem. Other posters in comment sections on the stltoday.com site have also applauded my efforts to stop that nickname.

    On a lighter note, I’ve been present to watch him pitch before and after Carpenter noticing the arm slot, and have seen a truly different pitcher. Before the change, a game against Philadelphia on 5/5, he was typically only throwing the fastball in the 87-89 range. Since making the arm-slot change, he’s back in the 90-93 range and has regained both late movement as well as command. It’s great to see.

    Now if we can only keep Carpenter healthy!

  4. Pip Says:

    Just for you, Hoish, I changed it. If it’s getting derided on an stltoday.com board, then, well, I can’t have that here on Fungoes. ;)

    Don’t you just love it when anecdotal evidence corroborates the data (or is it the other way around?)?

  5. Hoish Says:

    What a guy!

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