Derrick Goold has an interesting post attempting to answer the question "Did the Cardinals improve their lefty relief?" Using the newly acquired LOOGys’ 2008 numbers compared to the former Cardinal LOOGys, he concludes that indeed the team has improved, with the caveat of Trever Miller’s health.

We’ll offer another take, this one using 2009 projections for the incoming LOOGys — 40-man-roster players Miller, Charlie Manning, Royce Ring and spring-training invitee Ian Ostlund. In order to compare the pitchers with a metric that encompasses effectiveness and playing time, we’ll generate their expected Pitching Runs Created, a kind of pitching equivalent of batter Runs Created. As we did in the 2008 playoffs, we tweak the formula a bit to use Fielding-Independent (FIP) ERA rather than plain-old ERA. For most of the pitchers, multiple different projections are available (e.g., Marcel, CHONE, Bill James):

A lot can and will happen in spring training, but ceteris parabis, Manning and Miller figure to offer the best seasons, with a total of 50 projected PRC. Now, that could be just a case of variant projections. Just to be on the safe side, if we average the available projections, perhaps we’ll have a more reasonable expectation:

And how does the combo of Miller and Manning compare with last season’s LOOGys?

So, using a different approach, we come to the same conclusion as Goold: The Cardinals have indeed upgraded their portside relievers from last year. However, Goold does note the important detail of the iffiness of Miller’s health. In that case, what’s the best-case scenario without Miller, and for that matter, what’s the worst-case scenario altogether?

By diversifying, the Cardinals seem to have reduced their risk, since even in a bad scenario, they’ll have lefties who can do the job. Perhaps they won’t be great, but they’ll most likely be an upgrade over last year. That may say more about the LOOGy situation in 2008, but the bottom line is that it is one aspect of the team that is improved for 2009.

Finally, Goold brings up the question of opportunity lost by not pursuing other options, such as Brian Shouse, Will Ohman and Arthur Rhodes. Do they project better than the cadre that the Cardinals have hired?

Using the averages for these players, it’s unclear that the Cardinals could’ve really done better by adding Shouse or Rhodes. And while Ohman does represent an upgrade over any of the LOOGys the Cardinals brought in, it’s hard to imagine that his salary demands are less than what the Cardinals signed anyone for. When we’re talking about a difference of around five runs created, that’s less than one win over the season.

This entry was posted by Pip on Sunday, January 11th, 2009 at 12:48 am and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.