The Cardinals did not offer arbitration to Braden Looper, most likely ending the reliever-turned-starter’s tenure with the club. Given that the team could use another starter who can effectively pitch 180 innings, and that they stood to gain a compensation draft pick, the decision was likely unwise.

The best case for the Cardinals, if Looper had declined their offer, was that they would have gained a sandwich pick in next year’s amateur draft, no small thing. What was the worst scenario? That they would have lost in arbitration and been stuck with Looper for a year. Looper may not be exciting, but the reality is that the Cardinals can’t (and shouldn’t) rely on Chris Carpenter returning at all in 2009, and Looper was an above-average pitcher in 2008: He produced more Pitching Runs Created than players with more star quality, like Tim Hudson and Aaron Harang. And he projects to earn between 63 and 77 PRC (based on Marcels and Bill James, respectively) in 2009. Even if Looper had accepted an arbitration offer, which was apparently unlikely, recent history of arbitration cases for starting pitchers indicates that he wouldn’t have made much more than the $5.5 million he did in 2008:

PRC2: Pitching Runs Created two years prior
PRC1: Pitching Runs Created for previous season

Indeed, one of the preeminent baseball economists, JC Bradbury, estimates Looper’s worth in 2009 at $8.3 but figures that that amount is more than what Looper would’ve gotten in arbitration. So even a "worst-case" scenario would’ve been a positive for the Cardinals. The proof, of course, will be what kind of contract Looper ultimately signs this winter. If he gets anything for more than one year for $8.3 — and if you’re willing to bet against it, please email us — the egg will be on the Cardinals’ face.

As an aside, the ridiculous thing is the evaluation. Had Looper been a Type A free agent, the decision would’ve been that much clearer (though, we suppose, not any more likely that the Cardinals would’ve done it). No sensible system would value Russ Springer, effective as he is as a ROOGy, higher than Looper. Look at their stats from the last two years, which is the time period that Elias uses to rate free agents:

In the most conservative reading, they offer the same value. The problem is that Elias separates relievers and starters into distinct categories. So there’s no consideration of whether an average starting pitcher (e.g., Looper) might actually be better than an above-average reliever. Nor does it matter if the player is declining, as appears to be the case more noticeably with Springer than Looper.

Is there silver lining? Perhaps, if anything, it signals a willingness of John Mozeliak to be aggressive when the Winter Meetings begin next week. By declining all their free agents, the team has maximum control of its payroll heading to Las Vegas (whereas they might’ve had at least a few million hanging over their heads in arbitration settlements). If Mozeliak intends to make some big moves next week, he’ll want to have the most flexibility possible, both in budget and roster space. Perhaps this means he’s targeting a better starting pitcher. Time will tell. In the meantime, though, the Cardinals probably missed out on a draft pick by not offering arbitration to Looper. Remember, after all, that the jewel of the Cardinals’ farm system, Colby Rasmus, was drafted as the result of free-agent compensation for Edgar Renteria.

This entry was posted by Pip on Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 at 3:17 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.