Cardinals’ 2008 Lineups: Five scenarios
It’s nigh on the Ides of March, and if we’re not mistaken, the non-pitching component of the roster shakes out as 11 players set and two spots to be filled by four candidates (more on that in a bit). Six of the likely 13 position players were on the opening-day roster last season. So, given that the offensive side of the ledger is close to complete, how does it compare to the team’s 2007 opening-day roster? We’ll include actual VORP from the 2007 group and projected VORP for the 2008 would-be group (using Barton’s and Ryan’s 2008 VORP projections) :
| 2007 | 2008 | |||
| C | Molina | 9.4 | Molina | 9.6 |
| C | Bennett | -2.6 | LaRue | 2.3 |
| IF | Rolen | 4.1 | Glaus | 27.7 |
| IF | Eckstein | 20.7 | Izturis | -2.8 |
| IF | Kennedy | -13.1 | Kennedy | 3.1 |
| IF | Miles | 2.7 | Miles | -0.2 |
| IF | Pujols | 72.1 | Pujols | 68.1 |
| OF | Schumaker | 10.1 | Schumaker | 5.6 |
| OF | Duncan | 17.3 | Duncan | 20.3 |
| OF | Edmonds | 4.9 | Ankiel | 19.4 |
| OF | Taguchi | 5.5 | Ludwick | 12.9 |
| OF | Wilson | -3.9 | Barton (Mather/Gonzalez) | 0.9 |
| U | Spiezio | 3.4 | Ryan (Mather) | 6.3 |
| Total VORP | 130.6 | 173.2 | ||
On paper, the 2008 batting squad looks every bit as good as the 2007 version; indeed, John Mozeliak has reason to claim, as he did in his P-D chat today, that “Offensively we should be better than a year ago.” Perhaps ironically, the team stands to gain the most beneftit is in the outfield, the area that would seem to be so much in flux right now. As we noted earlier, if our calculations are correct, two position-player spots are still up for grabs and will be taken by some combination of two of the following:
- Juan Gonzalez
- Brendan Ryan
- Joe Mather
- Brian Barton
Assuming that at least one of the pair will need to be able to play at least a corner-infield position, the only unacceptable pairing would be Gonzalez and Barton, since they are both outfield-only candidates (and Mozeliak may have given a big clue as to which of the two will stick, saying "Juan has done everything we have asked, and is signed to minor league contract, so in the end we do have more flexibility with him."). That leaves five possible roster scenarios:
| Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | Scenario 5 | |
| C | Molina | ||||
| C | LaRue | ||||
| IF | Glaus | ||||
| IF | Izturis | ||||
| IF | Kennedy | ||||
| IF | Miles | ||||
| IF | Pujols | ||||
| OF | Ankiel | ||||
| OF | Duncan | ||||
| OF | Ludwick | ||||
| OF | Schumaker | ||||
| OF | Gonzalez | Barton | Mather | ||
| U | Ryan | Mather | Ryan | ||
Next, we’ll review the best lineups based on the first couple of scenarios.