Inspired by Joe Sheehan’s instructive article last week on "Lineupology," we’re looking this week at the Cardinals’ 2008 lineup. We reviewed the team’s best outfield combinations last month, and several others have done their own helpful analysis on what the lineup and roster will look like. In our preview this week, we’ll apply Sheehan’s principles to the players who are most likely to actually appear in the lineup in each position — based on the actual lineups that Tony La Russa has employed this spring.

First, let’s review the tenets for creating a solid lineup, which Sheehan separates into long-held rules and then guidelines.

Rules:

• Get your best hitters the most plate appearances
• Guys who get on base should bat in front of guys who hit for power
• Within reason, separate same-side hitters, to make life hard for platoon-centric managers

Guidelines:

• Speed is actually not that important in the top two lineup spots. Speed and stolen-base attempts both have more value in the fifth and sixth spots, in front of the worst batters in the seventh through ninth slots, who are more likely to make outs and less likely to pick up extra-base hits.
• The second leadoff hitter theory exists (i.e., pitcher batting eighth). "You can put your pitcher in the eighth slot and gain a couple of extra runs per year.”

Today we’ll get started by simply reviewing the players who’ve played the most games so far in each lineup spot. The theory is that, though some of the players won’t ultimately make the 25-man roster, the players that do are at least batting in the spots they’ll most likely bat in when the club heads north (most common in red; we’re assuming Colby Rasmus and Joe Mather begin the season in the minors).

#1

Leading candidate(s): Schumaker, Kennedy, Barton

#2

Leading candidate(s): Ankiel, Kennedy, Duncan (?)

#3

Leading candidate(s): Pujols

#4

Leading candidate(s): Glaus, Ankiel (?)

#5

Leading candidate(s): Gonzalez, Duncan

#6

Leading candidate(s): Ludwick, Barton (?), Gonzalez (?)

#7

Leading candidate(s): Molina/[Catcher], Schumaker

#8

Leading candidate(s): [Pitcher], Izturis

#9

Leading candidate(s): Ryan, Izturis, Miles

Later this week, we’ll review the segments of the order and how the likley candidates fit in based on "lineupology."

This entry was posted by Pip on Tuesday, March 11th, 2008 at 12:35 am and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.