[The UCB roundtable continues with Monday's question from Whiteyball's Michael Riehn.]
The upcoming contract of Albert Pujols has been through much speculation this offseason. While the future Hall of Famer has two years remaining on his contract, it has been cause for concern for many in Cardinal nation. The question that hasn’t been asked, because it seems obvious, is SHOULD we sign Pujols to a longterm contract? This question isn’t as easy as you might think at first glance.
In order to preface this question, I’d like to bring up a cautionary tale. Frank Thomas may have been a better hitter than Albert Pujols through his age 29 season …
What say you Cardinal bloggers? Is Pujols worth 10 years 25 million dollars? Would you sign him for 10 years 30 million? Are you confident he will be worth it? If so why? What would he have to produce over 10 years as a break even?
As Daniel and Chris have noted, the statistical comparisons of Pujols and Thomas are perhaps insufficient, but mostly because of fielding, which granted is no small thing. But given their wOBA through their age-29 seasons — .436 and .447, respectively — it’s difficult to argue that Pujols is a better hitter. The point that we think Michael is making here is salutary: As fans we tend to think that players — especially great ones — aren’t subject to the laws of science, specifically aging. And in that, Thomas should make us pause and dispassionately consider how neither Pujols is above the effects of aging and decay. Thomas’s latter-career physical breakdown is more the rule than an exception. The simple reality is that by the time Pujols’s current contract ends, we likely will have seen his best, and not only will he fail to improve, he’ll actually get worse. True, worse is a relative term: Even diminished, Pujols is still better that most players (as Thomas was). But there’s a lot of money between “better than average” and $30 million a year. As much as Cardinal fans clamor for the team to “do whatever it takes” to keep Pujols a Cardinal for the rest of his career, given their treatment of past players who made considerably less money, we seriously doubt their ability to graciously endure a player whose declining production increases the disparity between his value and his pay and quite possibly inhibits the team’s ability to win.
We propose something a bit radical (big surprise, we know): If, as Pujols, claims, it’s not principally about the money but on being part of a competitive team, the Cardinals can honor their superstar with a lifetime contract, but one whose value is based on Pujols’s actual current performance (and not his past) and that allows Pujols to opt-out if the team is no longer competitive. For example, Fangraphs estimates the three-time MVP to have a free-agent value of between $32 and $35 million in 2010. If he were to sign such a contract extension/restructure this spring and performed as expected, his salary for 2010 would be between $32-35 million (rather than the $16 million he is currently to receive). As he went on playing, his salaries might be something like $30m, $25m, $20m, $15m, $11m, $7m, etc. That would represent good faith on his part: He would be paid approximately what he was worth (at least on the playing field, which, granted, is only part of his total value). For the Cardinals’ part, they would provide a clause whereby Pujols could become a free agent if they, for example, had back-to-back losing seasons (or three of five, etc.). Will it happen? Of course not. But come 2011, both parties — either Pujols, due to a career-threatening injury, or the Cardinals due to the siren song of east-coast dollars — may find themselves wishing they would have.